Nigeria’s maritime exports surged by a remarkable 12 percent in the first half of 2025, reaching a staggering N42.87 trillion, driven primarily by foreign exchange reforms and the monumental output of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. This growth signals a potent shift towards an export-led economy and could herald a significant strengthening of the Naira.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, exports via sea transport rose from N38.27 trillion in the first half of 2024 to N42.87 trillion in H1 2025. Maritime trade continued its dominance over other modes like air and road, with Q1 2025 recording N20.36 trillion and Q2 hitting N22.51 trillion.
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Economic experts have pinpointed the Central Bank of Nigeria's foreign exchange liberalization as the primary catalyst for this boom. Dr. Muda Yusuf, Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, explained the direct impact.
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“The 12 per cent growth in maritime exports in the half-year is a reflection of the fact that the level of export has been increasing largely as a result of reform,” Yusuf stated. “Exchange rate depreciation is a major driver of growth in exports because it makes your exports cheaper, more attractive, and you make more money.”
He elaborated that under the previous regime, exporters were forced to sell their forex at a much lower official rate, causing massive losses. “But with the current reform and the unification of the exchange rate, that differential has been removed. Whatever you now bring, you can get full value for it using the prevailing market rate.”
A second major driver is the Dangote Refinery, which has begun exporting fertiliser and refined petroleum products in large quantities. Yusuf identified this as a "very valid factor behind the growth." This is bolstered by reports that Dangote Industries plans to export about 16,000 tons of fertiliser daily, generating an estimated $6.5 million to $7 million in daily revenue for Nigeria.
Supply chain expert, Marcel Mba, described the surge as a positive sign but cautioned that the net effect depends on the import-export balance. However, he was optimistic about the future, concluding, “The growth means that, barring any foolishness, the naira is going to grow stronger. So, it’s a positive.”
This performance, building on a 39.76% excess of maritime exports over imports in 2024, indicates renewed investor confidence and underscores the critical importance of sustaining these economic reforms to secure long-term growth and stability for the Nigerian economy.
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